Bayesian modelling

From a verbal causal chain to an explicit probabilistic graph — and checking a concordance

Mind map of chapter 27: six command and environment parameters — closure, institutional recognition, translation requirement, encounter arrangements, structural segregation, effective primacy of common law — act, through effective mixing, on an audit vector. The objects of the network do not share the same status: edges and their directions come from Part II and can only be discussed by going back there; the quantities are numerical conventions, and sensitivity analysis answers to them alone. The chapter discovers nothing and can discover nothing: it checks that the probabilistic engine restates what the axioms said. Three uses: predicting, diagnosing, measuring the reduction of uncertainty.